Research on Safety Risk of Dangerous Chemicals Road Transportation Based on Dynamic Fault Tree and Bayesian Network Hybrid Method (TECHNICAL NOTE)


Institute of System Engineering, School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi’an, China


Safety risk study on road transportation of hazardous chemicals is a reliable basis for the government to formulate transportation planning and preparing emergent schemes, but also is an important reference for safety risk managers to carry out dangerous chemicals safety risk managers. Based on the analysis of the transport safety risk of dangerous chemicals at home and abroad, this paper studied four main factors influencing the safety risk of road transportation. In order to study the reliability of the whole road transport system and take into account the dynamic changes of the safety risk, this paper presents the dynamic fault tree and Bayesian network hybrid method to identify and evaluate the dynamic safety risk of the road transportation of dangerous chemicals. Finally, the feasibility of the model is verified by the case study of road transportation of liquefied natural gas in a real enterprise.


1.     LI, J., FENG, Y., YU, Y., YU, L.a. and WU, J., "Research on the statistics of hazardous chemical accidents in china during the “twelfth five-year” period and recommendations", Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Information & Management Engineering),  Vol. 5, (2016), 6-15.
2.     Cao, H., Li, T., Li, S. and Fan, T., "An integrated emergency response model for toxic gas release accidents based on cellular automata", Annals of Operations Research, (2016), 1-22.
3.     Wang, G., Zhao, L., Hao, Y. and Zhu, J., Design of active safety warning system for hazardous chemical transportation vehicle, in Information technology and intelligent transportation systems. (2017), Springer.11-21.
4.     Jiang, X., Xu, Z. and Deng, Y., "Development in risk study on hazardous chemical materials road transportation", Journal of Catastrophology,  Vol. 4, (2006), 19-28.
5.     Mahmoudabadi, A., "Developing a chaotic pattern of dynamic risk definition for solving hazardous material routing-locating problem", Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,  Vol. 37, (2015), 1-10.
6.     Ambituuni, A., Amezaga, J.M. and Werner, D., "Risk assessment of petroleum product transportation by road: A framework for regulatory improvement", Safety Science,  Vol. 79, (2015), 324-335.
7.     Babrauskas, V., "Explosions of ammonium nitrate fertilizer in storage or transportation are preventable accidents", Journal of Hazardous Materials,  Vol. 304, (2016), 134-149.
8.     Fabiano, B., Currò, F., Reverberi, A.P. and Pastorino, R., "Dangerous good transportation by road: From risk analysis to emergency planning", Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,  Vol. 18, No. 4, (2005), 403-413.
9.     Berman, O., Verter, V. and Kara, B.Y., "Designing emergency response networks for hazardous materials transportation", Computers & Operations Research,  Vol. 34, No. 5, (2007), 1374-1388.
10.   Tena-Chollet, F., Tixier, J., Dusserre, G. and Mangin, J.-F., "Development of a spatial risk assessment tool for the transportation of hydrocarbons: Methodology and implementation in a geographical information system", Environmental Modelling & Software,  Vol. 46, (2013), 61-74.
11.   Saat, M.R., Werth, C.J., Schaeffer, D., Yoon, H. and Barkan, C.P., "Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation", Journal of Hazardous Materials,  Vol. 264, (2014), 560-569.
12.   Liu, X., Saat, M.R. and Barkan, C.P., "Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety", Journal of Hazardous Materials,  Vol. 260, (2013), 131-140.
13.   Zegordi, S., Nik, E.R. and Nazari, A., "Power plant project risk assessment using a fuzzy-anp and fuzzy-topsis method", International Journal of Engineering-Transactions B: Applications,  Vol. 25, No. 2, (2012), 107-116.
14.   Khezri, R., Hosseini, R. and Mazinani, M., "A fuzzy rule-based expert system for the prognosis of the risk of development of the breast cancer", International Journal of Engineering Transactions A: Basics,  Vol. 27, No. 10, (2014), 1557-1564.
15.   Mousavi, S., Makoui, A., Raissi, S. and Mojtahedi, S., "A multi-criteria decision-making approach with interval numbers for evaluating project risk responses", International Journal of Engineering-Transactions B: Applications,  Vol. 25, No. 2, (2012), 121-130.