, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra.
The present paper discusses the development of a performance model of power generation system of a thermal plant for performance evaluation using Markov technique and probabilistic approach. The study covers two areas: development of a predictive model and evaluation of performance with the help of developed model. The present system of thermal plant under study consists of four subsystems with three possible states: full working, reduced capacity working and failed. Failure and repair rates for all the subsystems are assumed to be constant. A transition diagram represents the operational behavior of the system. A probabilistic model has been developed, considering some assumptions. Data in feasible range are selected from a survey of thermal plant and the effect of each subsystem on the system availability is tabulated in the form of availability matrix, which provides various performance/availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates of all subsystems.