An Analytical Model for Confronting the Omicron Variant During COVID-19 Pandemic: A System Dynamic Approach

Document Type : Original Article


Department of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran


The global outbreak of COVID-19 began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and affected the entire world in a short time. Over time, the emergence of new species of the disease, the pace of response to it has also strongly affected, and with the emergence of the newest species called Omicron. Knowing and reviewing the system and publishing publications in the community is essential for sound policies. It is necessary to investigate the spread of COVID-19 to make proper policies. System dynamic can be adopted as an approach to the behavior evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic. The present study introduces a system dynamic model to explore the effects of different factors on the pandemic and therapeutic and non-therapeutic modalities. Vaccination is evaluated as the main approach to prevent the disease. The influential factors of pandemic prevention and control are examined based on the SEIR model and policies such as vaccination. The safest way to prevent this epidemic is vaccination. Therefore, a policy that benefits the entire population and will be necessary is producing and purchasing vaccines. From 19 July 2021, the rate of vaccine imports to Iran has increased significantly, and therefore it is predicted that by the end of 2022, Iran's general vaccination will end, after which the number of cases and mortality rates will decline. Vaccines are the ultimate solution to contagious diseases to control disease spread and provide safety to deal with the infection. The results suggested that the fatality rate of the susceptible population was reduced by vaccination and protective protocols. Thus, this paper aims to analyze factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 and prevent the disease.


Main Subjects

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