Joint Logit Model Approach to Analyze Soccer Spectators’ Arrival Time and Location Preferences for Interim Activities in Istanbul

Document Type : Original Article


1 Istanbul Commerce University, Faculty of Business, Department of Logistics Management, Istanbul, Turkey

2 Transportation Department, Faculty of civil engineering, Istanbul Technical University


Planned Special Event (PSE) is a public activity that has a defined location and time and has an influence on transportation system operations as a consequence of increases in travel demand or decreases in road capacity. Apart from the event itself, PSEs might generate additional activities based on location, time and duration of the event, and individual preferences. This paper focuses on the interim activities of soccer spectators in Istanbul. This paper is motivated by the mostly disregarded but significantly important demand for these activities by jointly analyzing the arrival time and location preferences for the interim activities carried out before the main activity. For this aim, a joint logit model capturing the factors influencing the arrival time and location choice collectively within the PSE circumstances is estimated. In this estimation, each trip and behavior of spectator groups are modeled separately. According to the results of the models, one significant and interesting finding is the behavioral differences of supporters of different teams which is mostly influenced by the activity opportunities present in the surrounding of the venues. Last motorized trips of the Besiktas and Fenerbahce’s spectators end at the sub-centers in general, while the spectators of the Galatasaray prefer the stadium as their final destination. Moreover, league matches being on weekdays or weekends does not have a statistically significant effect on the choice of arrival time and location of the spectators. The findings provide useful information that might assist event organizers and decision-makers especially in planning special events.


Main Subjects

  1. Latoski, S.P., Dunn, W.M., Wagenblast, B., Randall, J. and Walker, M.D., Managing travel for planned special events. 2003, United States. Joint Program Office for Intelligent Transportation Systems.
  2. Schrank, D., Eisele, B. and Lomax, T., "Urban mobility report powered by inrix traffic data. 2012", (2012), doi.
  3. Skolnik, J., Chami, R. and Walker, M., Planned special events: Economic role and congestion effects. 2008, United States. Federal Highway Administration.
  4. Cook, R.A., Hsu, C.H. and Taylor, L.L., "Tourism: The business of hospitality and travel, Pearson New York, Vol. 6,  (2018).
  5. Getz, D.J.T.m., "Event tourism: Definition, evolution, and research", Vol. 29, No. 3, (2008), 403-428, doi.
  6. Day, N., "The joint modelling of trip timing and mode choice", (2008),
  7. Kuppam, A., Copperman, R., Lemp, J., Rossi, T., Livshits, V., Vallabhaneni, L., Jeon, K. and Brown, E.J.T.L., "Special events travel surveys and model development", Vol. 5, No. 2, (2013), 67-82, doi.
  8. Li, Y., Wang, X., Sun, S., Ma, X. and Lu, G.J.T.R.P.C.E.T., "Forecasting short-term subway passenger flow under special events scenarios using multiscale radial basis function networks", Vol. 77, (2017), 306-328, doi.
  9. Shahin, S., Hüseyin, T.O., Kemal, Ö.S.J.P.-S. and Sciences, B., "Evaluating transportation preferences for special events: A case study for a megacity, istanbul", Vol. 111, (2014), 98-106, doi.
  10. Frawley, S., Van den Hoven, P.J.S. and Society, "Football participation legacy and australia’s qualification for the 2006 football world cup", Vol. 16, No. 4, (2015), 482-492, doi.
  11. E Ergin, M. and Tezcan, H.J.I.J.o.E., "Planned special event travel demand model development", International Journal of Engineering, Transactions B: Applications, Vol. 34, No. 2, (2021), 336-347, doi. https://doi:10.5829/IJE.2021.34.02B.05
  12. Dunn, W., "Managing travel for planned special events handbook: Executive summary, US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, (2007).
  13. Frantzeskakis, J.M. and Frantzeskakis, M.J.J.I.o.T.E.I.J., "Athens 2004 olympic games: Transportation planning, simulation and traffic management", Vol. 76, No. 10, (2006), 26, doi.
  14. Zagidullin, R.J.T.R.P., "Model of road traffic management in the city during major sporting events", Vol. 20, (2017), 709-716, doi.
  15. Yaun, F., Giese, K. and Lew, K., "A multiclass dynamic traffic assignment model for special events management", in 12th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference, Citeseer. (2009).
  16. Shin, J.-h. and Lyu, S.O.J.S.M.R., "Using a discrete choice experiment to estimate spectators’ willingness to pay for professional baseball park sportscape", Vol. 22, No. 4, (2019), 502-512, doi.
  17. Giampiccoli, A., Lee, S.S. and Nauright, J.J.C.i.i.t., "Destination south africa: Comparing global sports mega-events and recurring localised sports events in south africa for tourism and economic development", Vol. 18, No. 3, (2015), 229-248, doi.
  18. Keya, N., Anowar, S., Bhowmik, T., Eluru, N.J.T.R.P.E.L. and Review, T., "A joint framework for modeling freight mode and destination choice: Application to the us commodity flow survey data", Vol. 146, (2021), 102208, doi.
  19. Ding, C., Xie, B., Wang, Y., Lin, Y.J.D.D.i.N. and Society, "Modeling the joint choice decisions on urban shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode: A comparative study of different structures", Vol. 2014, (2014), doi.
  20. Liu, W., Zhang, F. and Yang, H.J.T.R.P.C.E.T., "Modeling and managing the joint equilibrium of destination and parking choices under hybrid supply of curbside and shared parking", Vol. 130, (2021), 103301, doi.
  21. Seyedabrishami, S. and Izadi, A.R.J.T.R.P., "A copula-based joint model to capture the interaction between mode and departure time choices in urban trips", Vol. 41, (2019), 722-730, doi.
  22. Lizana, P., de Dios Ortúzar, J., Arellana, J., Rizzi, L.I.J.T.R.P.A.P. and Practice, "Forecasting with a joint mode/time-of-day choice model based on combined rp and sc data", Vol. 150, (2021), 302-316, doi. 
  23. Tringides, C.A., Ye, X. and Pendyala, R.M.J.T.R.R., "Departure-time choice and mode choice for nonwork trips: Alternative formulations of joint model systems", Vol. 1898, No. 1, (2004), 1-9, doi.
  24. Jokubauskaitė, S., Hössinger, R., Aschauer, F., Gerike, R., Jara-Díaz, S., Peer, S., Schmid, B., Axhausen, K.W. and Leisch, F.J.T.R.P.B.M., "Advanced continuous-discrete model for joint time-use expenditure and mode choice estimation", Vol. 129, (2019), 397-421, doi.
  25. Elmorssy, M. and Onur, T.J.I.J.o.E., "Modelling departure time, destination and travel mode choices by using generalized nested logit model: Discretionary trips", Vol. 33, No. 2, (2020), 186-197, doi.
  26. Zhou, H., Tian, Z.J.P.-s. and sciences, b., "Modeling analysis of incident and roadway clearance time", Vol. 43, (2012), 349-355, doi.
  27. Florez, J., Muniz, J., Portugal, L.J.P.-S. and Sciences, B., "Pedestrian quality of service: Lessons from maracanã stadium", Vol. 160, (2014), 130-139, doi. https://doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.12.124
  28. Pratiwi, A.R., Zhao, S. and Mi, X.J.F.o.A.R., "Quantifying the relationship between visitor satisfaction and perceived accessibility to pedestrian spaces on festival days", Vol. 4, No. 4, (2015), 285-295, doi.
  29. Lin, Y.-Z. and Chen, W.-H.J.T.r.p., "A simulation-based multiclass, multimodal traffic assignment model with departure time for evaluating traffic control plans of planned special events", Vol. 25, (2017), 1352-1379, doi.
  30. Chang, M.-S. and Lu, P.-R.J.J.o.t.E.A.S.f.T.S., "A multinomial logit model of mode and arrival time choices for planned special events", Vol. 10, (2013), 710-727, doi.
  31. Koppelman, F.S. and Bhat, C., "A self instructing course in mode choice modeling: Multinomial and nested logit models", (2006), doi.
  32. Kamboozia, N., Ameri, M., Hosseinian, S.M.J.I.j.o.i.c. and promotion, s., "Statistical analysis and accident prediction models leading to pedestrian injuries and deaths on rural roads in iran", Vol. 27, No. 4, (2020), 493-509, doi. https://doi:10.1080/17457300.2020.1812670
  33. Yan, L.C., Yang, S.S. and Fu, G.J.J.J.o.T.E., "Travel demand model for beijing 2008 olympic games", Vol. 136, No. 6, (2010), 537-544, doi.
  34. Kwoczek, S., Di Martino, S., Nejdl, W.J.J.o.V.L. and Computing, "Predicting and visualizing traffic congestion in the presence of planned special events", Vol. 25, No. 6, (2014), 973-980, doi.
  35. Ghasemi, J. and Rasekhi, J.J.I.J.o.E., "Traffic signal prediction using elman neural network and particle swarm optimization", Vol. 29, No. 11, (2016), 1558-1564, doi. https://doi:10.5829/idosi.ije.2016.29.11b.09
  36. Leilei, D., Zheng-liang, S., Jin-gang, G. and Hong-tong, Q., "Study on traffic organization and management strategies for large special events", in 2012 International Conference on System Science and Engineering (ICSSE), IEEE., (2012), 432-436.
  37. Casado-Díaz, A.B., Navarro-Ruiz, S., Nicolau, J.L. and Ivars-Baidal, J.J.T.M., "Expanding our understanding of cruise visitors' expenditure at destinations: The role of spatial patterns, onshore visit choice and cruise category", Vol. 83, (2021), 104199, doi.