Earthquake prediction modeling using dynamic changes (Case Study: Alborz Region)

Document Type : Original Article


Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and technology, Shahid Ashrafi Isfahani University, Isfahan, Iran


This study aims to investigate the computational effect of Earth's viscosity on the Coulomb stress changes. Therefore, several large earthquakes in the Alborz region are selected and Coulomb stress changes are calculated in them, then the Coulomb stress temporal changes are shown by assuming the earth as an elastic layer on a viscous- elastic half-space. The spatial and temporal changes of the crustal deformation process associated with earthquakes depend on several parameters including the thickness of the lithosphere, viscosity of the asthenosphere, and dip angle of fault. The findings of this study are presented by determining the impact of modeling results on each of the input parameters through the sensitivity analysis of co-seismic and post-seismic deformation due to the dip-slip and strike-slip faulting. In addition to the useful results reported for the impact of parameters, the obtained results indicate the occurrence of numerous aftershocks in a region with increased Coulomb stress from 0.1 to 0.8 bar and the non-occurrence or low-occurrence of aftershocks in a region with reduced Coulomb stress. In addition to the predicted locations of aftershocks, it is also possible to determine the location of the next major earthquake using Coulomb stress change calculations.


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